Redistricting Now Complete in All States (NATIONAL)

 

With New Hampshire finally determining how to draw the lines between its two congressional districts, all states have now completed redistricting for the 2022 elections (six states only have one U.S. House seat, so redistricting is irrelevant there).

Expert opinion varies a tiny bit on which party got the best of redistricting, but any advantage to either party deriving purely from redistricting is likely to be small. 

Five-Thirty-Eight's tracker projects an increase of six Democratic-leaning seats compared to the previous map. However, "After accounting for incumbency... Republicans are actually the ones who have gained ground from redistricting: The GOP is positioned for a net gain of three to five seats in 2022 just thanks to the new lines alone."

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report tweeted the following on May 19:

Something everyone seems to agree on is that the number of truly competitive seats has declined tremendously.

Though all states completed their redistricting process, there are still some pending court cases. Just yesterday, in fact, a federal judge in Louisiana blocked that state's congressional map from going into effect, saying that application of the Voting Rights Act in this context would require two (not the current one) majority-Black districts. This decision is being appealed and may end up at the U.S. Supreme Court, which previously blocked a similar ruling with regard to Alabama from going into effect.

Although court challenges have benefited the Democrats in some states, setbacks for the Democrats in New York, Ohio, and Maryland have limited their potential gains.

Politico (2/4/22) on Court Challenges to Redistricting Maps Around the Country (NATIONAL)

Politico provides an overview of the states in which legislatively enacted redistricting maps have been challenged in state and federal courts. In some states (such as Ohio and Pennsylvania), courts have already ruled, whereas in others (e.g., Florida), the cases are pending. 

The article quotes Representative Sean Patrick Maloney (Democrat-NY), chair of the party's congressional campaign committee, as saying of the court challenges that, "We're not taking anything for granted but we're doing a hell of a lot better than I thought we would."

UPDATE: In a ruling released roughly within the past hour, the North Carolina Supreme Court has struck down that state's redistricting map. Like rulings in other states, the one in North Carolina should help the Democrats.

Five-Thirty-Eight (1/31/22) on Potential U.S. House Districts for New York State

Five-Thirty-Eight is out today with an in-depth examination (including diagrams) of a proposed map before the New York legislature to determine the state's U.S. House districts. The article describes the plan, which could gain the Democrats three seats in the Empire State, as a "a good possibility [to pass] but far from a certainty." 

The article hits a number of themes, including the parts of the state in which redrawn districts would likely shift from lean-Republican to lean-Democratic; the possible ways in which the plan could fail either in the legislature or in the courts; and why the final drawing of districts almost certainly will fall to the legislature, rather than to the state's bipartisan districting commission.

Five-Thirty-Eight (1/14/22) on Ohio Supreme Court's Rejection of GOP Redistricting Map (OHIO)

Nathaniel Rakich at Five-Thirty-Eight examines the Ohio Supreme Court's rejection of the congressional map passed by the state's Republican-majority legislature and the decision's possible implications for the partisan makeup of the state's future U.S. House delegation (LINK). Rakich also looks at which other states have thus far passed highly partisan maps (by statistical indicators) that may be vulnerable to court challenges.

Wasserman on Twitter (12/22/21): Redistricting "Close to a Wash" (NATIONAL)

Redistricting expert Dave Wasserman released the following tweet a few days ago. It is much better news for Democrats than would have been expected at the beginning of the redistricting cycle. Wasserman still considers the Republicans heavy favorites to take the US House majority, but this prediction is based on President Biden's current low job approval, not on redistricting...

Politico on California (12/21/21), Arizona (12/22/21), and New Jersey (12/22/21)

Three recent articles from Politico detail the new maps in three states. You can click on the names of the states to access the full articles. Below are some key quotes from these articles, with my occasional comments (in purple) to add context.

CALIFORNIA:  "This is the high end of what was a probable outcome for Democrats," said Paul Mitchell, a political data analyst and owner of the firm Redistricting Partners. "This was definitely a good outcome for Democrats. Republicans have 11 current members — in these maps they should only be sending nine back to Congress in 2022." 

California will be losing a seat due to population, so will now have 52 representatives.

ARIZONA: "Arizona, one of the most bitterly divided swing states, finalized a new congressional map that could hand the GOP six of its nine congressional districts in 2022." 

 "The state’s redistricting commission on Wednesday approved a layout that creates two true swing seats in the suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson — currently held by GOP Rep. David Schweikert and retiring Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick — while very possibly dooming Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran in the northeast half of the state." ... 

 “The map achieves what Democrats say they want nationally. It maximizes the number of competitive seats in Arizona,” said Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust. “There's three good Republican seats. There's two or three good Democrat seats. And then there's three to five competitive seats, depending on the cycle.” 

NEW JERSEY: "Barring a massive wave election for either side, Democrats’ 10-2 majority in the New Jersey delegation is likely to shrink to 9-3 under the new map. That’s because the state’s 7th District, represented by Rep. Tom Malinowski, will shed Democratic areas to the benefit of three other previously-vulnerable Democratic incumbents."

Immediately after the 2018 elections, the Democrats held an 11-1 advantage, which I termed "Blue Jersey." However, one year into the next Congress, in January 2020, District-2 representative Jeff Van Drew switched to the GOP. He then survived his first re-election as a Republican, 51.9-46.2, in November 2020.

Five-Thirty-Eight (12/2/21) on How Redistricting Looks So Far (NATIONAL)

Five-Thirty-Eight evaluates the partisan implications of the redistricting that has taken place so far (in 18 states). Three key points stand out to me.

First, on the surface, it appears that any partisan shift in the number of districts leaning Republican or Democrat is pretty mild.

Second, beneath the surface, this is good for the GOP in two ways. The baseline off of which the new districts are being drawn (after 2010) was already favorable to the Republicans and the GOP has taken a number of seats that they won by relatively slim margins in 2018 and 2020 and cushioned them with more Republican-leaning voters.

Third, in the few states where Democrats control the governorship and legislature, they have created a greater number of Democratic-leaning districts, albeit with somewhat tenuous margins (e.g., D+5). Observers such as Dave Wasserman have pointed out that such seats are vulnerable to GOP takeovers in a strongly Republican year (which 2022 is looking like). Five-Thirty-Eight author Nathaniel Rakich makes a point, however, that had already occurred to me:

...Democrats might be OK with that tradeoff, as any election that results in the loss of slightly Democratic-leaning seats is probably an election in which Republicans have already won the House handily. Instead, the goal of these new maps in Illinois, Nevada and Oregon seems to be to maximize the number of Democratic wins in neutral political environments, when the House is genuinely competitive.