The Oregonian and The Hill (9/28/21) on Oregon Becoming the First State of this Cycle to Sign New Maps Into Law (OREGON)

Two nice articles -- one from The Oregonian and the other from The Hill   -- on Oregon becoming the first state of this redistricting cycle to have its U.S. House, state Senate, and state House districts signed into law. Oregon will be getting an additional U.S. House district due to the state's population growth, thus expanding from five seats (4-1 Democrats) to six.

The Oregonian article includes interactive maps of the current and newly adopted U.S. House district configurations. If you hover your cursor over a given district, you can see its partisan composition. 

Every source I've seen agrees that there are three very safe Democratic seats and one very safe Republican seat. How the remaining two seats are characterized varies by who you listen to. The Oregonian offers that one of the two seats "tilts in Democrats’ favor" (presumably the new 6th district, with a partisanship of D+4.3), whereas the other (the 5th, D+1.2) is fairly even, but "include[s] fast-growing Bend, where expected Democratic growth could make the district bluer over the next decade." The Hill, on the other hand, describes the new map flatly as a 5-1 Democratic lean.

Eighteen-term Democrat Peter DeFazio, who has represented the 4th District in the southwest part of the state (Eugene and Coos Bay among other towns) and has received 55, 66, and 52 percent of the vote in his last three general elections, will have a new district (still designated as the 4th) that "will likely be less competitive in future elections," according to The Hill. The map in the Oregonian article pegs DeFazio's new district as D+10.

Five-Thirty-Eight (9/27/21) with Further Details on Potential Texas U.S. House Districts (TEXAS)

Following up on my posting yesterday based on Politico's article on the potential new Texas U.S. House districts, today we have a piece from Five-Thirty-Eight that provides district-by-district statistical information about the latest Texas map.

Politico (9/27/21) on Emerging Contours of Texas U.S. House Map (TEXAS)

The Texas legislature appears to be getting close to a new map for its U.S. House districts, Politico reports. The Lone Star State will receive two more seats due to population growth, upping its delegation from 36 (23-13 in favor of the GOP) to 38 seats. The following two passages convey the key points of the article, in my view:

While the precise boundaries are still being finalized, the new map is likely to shore up all of the state’s GOP incumbents by packing Democrats together in three new deep-blue seats in the biggest metro areas: Austin, Houston and Dallas, according to several sources close to the redistricting process. 

The end result is likely to give Republicans control of at least two dozen of the state’s 38 districts — but it is not expected to significantly reduce Democrats’ footprint, which grew slightly over the past 10 years. That's a far cry from the ruthless redistricting happening elsewhere — but also a realization of the GOP's already maxed-out advantage in Texas.

In other words, the Republicans are not following a pizza-slicing strategy (depicted here), as they've done in the past with the Austin area. Instead, they're following a "vote-sink" strategy, creating three new districts whose residents vote overwhelmingly Democratic, so that these Democratic voters don't have to go into predominantly GOP districts. We've seen recently how, particularly in suburban areas, districts that have a small share of Democrats at the beginning of the decade pick up more Democrats over the years and become competitive by the end of the decade.

The Politico article talks about Hispanic voters' swing to the Republicans in 2020 in south Texas (which took place elsewhere around the nation, as well). Whether this is a lasting phenomenon or merely an artifact of other factors (the Democrats' cutting back on door-to-door campaigning due to COVID or Hispanic voters' tendency to increase their support of incumbent presidents from their initial election to their re-election bid) remains an open question.

The bottom line, though, is that this latest Texas redistricting map suggests the GOP will hold 24-25 of the 38 seats.

The Atlantic (9/20/21) on Most CBC Members' Changing Stance on Packing Black Voters into One District (NATIONAL)

Over at The Atlantic, Dave Wasserman writes about a shift in how most members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) from southern states view the drawing of districts. These opinion shifts did not occur in a vacuum, but rather reflect the changing political context from the early 1990s to the present day.

Immediately prior to 1992, there were only five Black US House members from the South. As summarized by Wasserman, a 1986 US Supreme Court decision "interpreted Section 2 of the [Voting Rights Act or VRA] to require that majority-minority districts be drawn if a racial minority was both politically cohesive and sufficiently numerous to form a majority in one district." After these majority-minority districts were drawn for the 1992 elections, the number of Black House members from the South grew to 17. Some states, such as Virginia, had gone more than 100 years without a Black representative before 1992. 

The Atlantic article refers to these districts with large numbers of African American voters as "hyper-minority" and "hyper-packed." These districts are also known as "VRA-protected" based on the Supreme Court decision, a term discussed in this earlier posting of mine.

These majority-Black districts have had an additional consequence, however, that Democrats (including most CBC members) are increasingly turning against. By packing Black voters into one district in a state, the surrounding districts were assigned larger percentages of White voters than before, which made these seats more Republican leaning. 

Currently, several southern states' congressional delegations are all Republican except for one Democrat from a majority-Black district or at least one with a sizable Black population (Alabama 6-1 GOP; Kentucky 5-1; Louisiana 5-1; Mississippi 3-1; South Carolina 6-1). And as discussed in previous postings here, GOP legislators in Missouri and Tennessee are considering plans to reduce Democrats' representation from two down to one (VRA protected) seat. 

Wasserman quotes several Democratic CBC members who are now championing an "unpacking" strategy in lawsuits to try to create two districts each in states such as Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina that would each have perhaps 40% Black voters and potentially be winnable by progressive candidates (Black or of a different race or ethnicity). Representative Terri Sewell (D-Alabama) notes that, while part of her wants to preserve her current district, "the need for another minority-opportunity district overrides that concern."

Vox (9/20/21) on Redistricting Basics and National Outlook (NATIONAL)

Vox has a new article, providing some redistricting basics and also going over the situation in many of the states. In which states is there potential for the Republicans or Democrats to pick up multiple seats or maybe just a single seat? What are the procedural differences between states? Take a look at the article to find out.

Original Posting on Nashville, Tennessee and Austin, Texas Redistricting Parallels (TENNESSEE and TEXAS)

Nashville, Tennessee seems to inspire counting. According to  "Nashville Cats," a 1966 song by the Lovin' Spoonful, "there's thirteen hundred and fifty two guitar pickers in Nashville..." More seriously, though, the latest U.S. Census finds Tennessee's capital city and surrounding areas to have grown spectacularly. An article on the website of TV station WKRN notes that:

...multiple counties making up the Nashville metropolitan statistical area registered the 19th-highest collective [growth] rate among its peers nationally at 20.9%.

As redistricting guru Dave Wasserman has been tweeting about lately, the growth of metropolitan Nashville creates a dilemma for the Republicans who dominate state government. 

Should Republicans "carve up" the Nashville-based district of Democrat Jim Cooper to increase the GOP's margin in the state's U.S. House delegation to 8-1 from the current 7-2? Putting a small section of Nashville into each of what would be several Republican-leaning districts in the surrounding areas -- and leaving Cooper without a winnable district -- would gain the GOP a seat in the short-term.

Think of the Nashville area as a pizza. Currently, the blue (Democratic) center is intact, forming Cooper's district. Implementing a pizza slicing of the Nashville area (as shown to the right) would leave slices that were all majority red (Republican), with little blue areas at the tip of each slice.

There's also an argument to be made, however, that Republicans should refrain from doing so. Continued growth in metro Nashville -- potentially comprised heavily of Democratic-leaning voters -- could, over the years, expand the blue proportions of each slice and make the districts more competitive. Conceivably, the GOP could be left worse off at the end of the decade than it is now.

This is not purely a matter of speculation. As Wasserman alluded to in one of his tweets, Texas Republicans implemented a pizza slicing of its growing capital city -- and live-music hub -- Austin the last time around (2012). By 2018, things started getting dicey for the GOP (this 2018 Austin Chronicle article provides a map of the Austin-based districts). I created the following table to show how dicey things got for GOP representatives (in red) whose districts contained some of Austin.

Whereas one of these Republicans received nearly 80% of the vote in his district in 2012 and four others each received around 60%, all five fell into the 50s (sometimes the very low 50s) by 2018. Yes, 2018 was a strong Democratic year, but one party or the other has a strong year from time to time. Note also that, even though 2020 is widely considered a dismal Democrat year in Texas, GOP members from these districts didn't do much better in 2020 than in 2018. 

Texas Republicans can shore these districts up with new redistricting for 2022. Still, the GOP's experience from slicing up Austin stands as an object lesson for Tennessee mapmakers. As noted above in one of Wasserman's tweets, some Tennessee Republicans seem to be on to this.

Politico (9/15/21) on National Picture: GOP Shoring Up Seats That Had Become Competitive (NATIONAL)

 

Politico has a new article analyzing a bunch of GOP-held U.S. House districts in which Democratic challengers (though still losing) had closed the gap in 2018 and 2020, but Republican governors and legislators can now make more safely red for 2022 (h/t Dave Wasserman on Twitter). 

As the article notes, Democratic pick-up opportunities in these districts will become next to nil, putting extreme pressure on the D's to get all their incumbents re-elected (at least those whose districts are not drawn out of existence).

Districts mentioned in the article as being almost certain to move further out of Democratic reach than they currently are include: AR-2 (held by French Hill), FL-26 (Carlos Gimenez), FL-27 (Maria Elvira Salazar), IN-5 (Victoria Spartz), KY-6 (Andy Barr), MO-2 (Ann Wagner), NC-8 (Richard Hudson), NC-9 (Dan Bishop), OK-5 (Stephanie Bice), and SC-1 (Nancy Mace).

New York Times (9/14/21) on Possible Democratic Near-Wipeout of Republicans (NEW YORK)

The New York Times reports today on the likelihood of  New York's governor and state legislature -- all in Democratic hands -- redrawing the state's U.S. House district lines to give their party a big gain (h/t Political Wire). The Empire State currently has 27 seats, which the Democrats already dominate 19-8. 

New York will lose one of these seats, leaving the possibility that Democrats will attempt a 23-3 map, thus reducing the GOP delegation by five seats. Aggressive, yes, but, as the Times article notes, not unlike what the Republicans will likely do in Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

Making the New York situation more controversial, however, is that the state had established a redistricting commission in 2014, which the legislature and governor seem poised to overrule. Notes the article: "Though the [state] Constitution gives the commission the first shot at drawing maps, lawmakers in Albany have broad leeway to disregard the panel’s work and create their own."

I'll close this brief entry with a piece of historical trivia: As recently as the early 1950s, New York had 45 seats in the U.S. House. In most of the decades since, the state lost two or three seats, but really took a hit in the 1980 Census, shedding five seats!

Lincoln Journal-Star (9/8/21) on GOP Plans to Break-Up Omaha-Based CD-2 (NEBRASKA)

The Lincoln Journal-Star reports on some of the early maneuvering in the Nebraska legislature that may convert the 2nd district (little blue area to the left) from its current competitive status to safely Republican (h/t Political Wire). The other two districts would remain securely in the GOP's hands.

The current 2nd district is based in Douglas County (which contains the state's largest city, Omaha) and Sarpy County to the south. Republican Don Bacon has held this seat since the 2016 election, but has never exceeded 51% of the vote in his three general elections. The 2nd was represented by Democrat Brad Ashford for one term (2014-2016).

As readers of this blog would probably already know, what gives Nebraska's (and Maine's) U.S. House districts added importance is the practice in these two states of dividing up presidential electoral votes (EV's) based on Congressional districts. Nebraska's five EV's are allocated as follows: two to the presidential candidate who wins the overall popular vote in the state and one each to the winner within each U.S. House district.

In the 2020 presidential contest, it looked for a time after Election Night that the winner might be decided by a small number of electoral votes, so Joe Biden's win in the 2nd district (depicted in the adjoining diagram) looked like it could be a "Big [Effin'] Deal," to use one of Biden's signature phrases. (Biden ended up winning the EV count 306-232, so the one vote from Nebraska's CD-2 was not that important in the end.) Potentially, though, the configuration of Nebraska's districts could reverberate heavily in a presidential context.

Regarding the specifics of one redistricting plan in the Nebraska legislature: 

Under the redistricting plan authored by Republicans who serve in the nonpartisan Legislature, a portion of Douglas County would be moved into the [1st] congressional district represented by Rep. Jeff Fortenberry of Lincoln. 

Meanwhile, heavily Republican Saunders County, whose county seat is Wahoo, would be moved into the 2nd District. 

Although, as noted above, Nebraska officially has a non-partisan legislature, members' party affiliations seem widely known. Also, the legislature is unicameral, with legislators in the single chamber known as "senators." 

Fox News (9/8/21) on Key States Nationally (NATIONAL)

Fox News offers an overview of redistricting in some key states around the nation. There are a few good paragraphs going into depth about Ohio, in particular, with briefer examinations of states such as Illinois and New York. 

Connecticut Mirror (9/7/21) on Population Shifts Within the State (CONNECTICUT)

Connecticut currently has five U.S. House seats (all held by Democrats) and will remain at five seats. As the Connecticut Mirror reports, although total population size was very similar to the previous decade's, certain areas grew and shrank within the state. Creating equal-sized districts will therefore require some new cartography. As the article notes:

On a congressional level, losses in eastern Connecticut and gains in Fairfield County mean that Congressman Joe Courtney’s sprawling 2nd District must get even bigger, while Congressman Jim Himes’ 4th will get more compact.

The article also has some interesting discussion of citizen input into the process, via online DIY district-drawing sites.

The Oregonian (9/3/21) on Democrats' and Republicans' Competing U.S. House Maps and What the Process Is (OREGON)

Oregon's U.S. House districts are determined by the state legislature and governor -- the way it is in most states -- but there are some interesting twists in the process this year. This Oregonian article describes the situation.

First, Oregon's delegation will increase from five to six seats. A change in the number automatically entails disruption to the existing map.

Second, even though the Democrats hold majorities in both the state House and state Senate, the House Redistricting Committee has an equal number of D and R members, thanks to a deal the parties made in organizing the House for this current session. The GOP members on this committee can therefore prevent the Democrats' favored bill (which would lean toward giving the Democrats a 5-1 advantage in the state's U.S. House delegation) from getting to the floor of the state House. The Democrats' proposed map, as well as the Republicans' (which aims to yield a 3-3 split) are shown in the above-linked Oregonian article. 

Third, should the legislature fail to approve a map or Gov. Kate Brown (D) veto the legislature's map, the ultimate decision on districts would fall to Oregon Secretary of State Shemia Fagan, a Democrat. A few scenarios seem possible. One is that the legislative passes a compromise plan that perhaps has four Democratic-leaning seats, one GOP-leaning seat, and one toss-up. Even if the legislature passes such a bill, however, Brown could simply veto it and send the matter to Fagan.

Denver Post (9/3/21) on Commission's Newly Released Draft of U.S. House Districts (COLORADO)

Colorado's newly created independent redistricting commission has released its first draft of a U.S. House map based on actual Census data. Currently, Colorado has seven seats, with Democrats holding a 4-3 majority. The state will gain one seat and the new map is said to keep "the four Democratic seats relatively safe, as well as [preserve] three as solidly Republican [and] add a new swing seat." Two key developments are that first-term staunch conservative Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) would have parts of her current district folded into the heavily Democratic Boulder-based district held by Rep. Joe Neguse (D) and that the western half of the state (the Western Slope) would be divided into a northern and southern half.

Yahoo! News (9/1/21) on New Hampshire GOP's Determination to Draw an R-Leaning District (NEW HAMPSHIRE)

Yahoo! News reports on how Republicans in New Hampshire, who control the state legislature and hold the governorship, are angling to change the Granite State's current 2-0 Democratic hold on U.S. House seats to 1-1.

Democrats -- Chris Pappas (2018-2022) and Carol Shea-Porter (2016-2018) in the 1st district and Ann McLane Kuster in the 2nd -- have held both seats since the 2016 election. Pappas was re-elected with only 51.3% of the vote in 2020, whereas Kuster did a bit better that year with 53.9%. Hence, moving some Democratic-leaning areas from Pappas's district to Kuster's and sending some Republican-leaning areas from Kuster's to Pappas's would strengthen Kuster's hand, but make Pappas's 1st district more winnable for the GOP. 

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) only seems on board with this plan up to a point, vowing not to support any overly serpentine line drawings. The above-linked Yahoo! News article notes that New Hampshire's district lines have not varied much over the last several decades, which is borne out is this compilation of historical diagrams.

Bridge Michigan (8/16/21) on Population Loss in the State's Urban Areas (MICHIGAN)

In contrast to national trends showing strong population growth in cities and suburbs, the reverse seems to be the case in Michigan, at least for cities. As Bridge Michigan reports (link): 

Heavy population losses in Detroit, Flint and other cities could put Democrats at a disadvantage when new congressional and state legislative districts are drawn this year. 

Democrats represent the three congressional districts that lost the greatest share of residents in the 2020 U.S. Census, the 13th and 14th in southeast Michigan and 5th on the state’s east side.

A couple of other key points discussed in the article are that Michigan will for the first time be using an independent redistricting commission to draw new district lines and that the state will be losing a U.S. House seat, reducing its delegation from 14 to 13.