Saturday, November 20, 2021

AP (11/20/21) on Ohio, Nevada Independent (11/19/21) on Nevada, and The Hill (10/29/21) on Iowa (OHIO, NEVADA, & IOWA)

Three more states have enacted Congressional maps in recent weeks: Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa.

Ohio is the most recent, as reported here by the Associated Press (hat tip Political Wire). The article notes that the Republican legislative majority sliced up Ohio's big cities like pizzas: 

Populous Cuyahoga and Hamilton counties — home to Cleveland and Cincinnati, respectively, and their concentrations of Democratic voters — are divided three ways each. Franklin County, home to Columbus, is divided two ways, and the western Cleveland suburbs in Lorain County are part of a district that stretches to the Indiana border, a nearly 3-hour drive.

Dave Wasserman tweets that the Ohio map "could balloon Republicans' advantage from 12R-4D to 13R-2D in 2022." The AP writer offers a slightly different assessment, claiming that "The new law creates at most three safe Democratic districts out of 15 new U.S. House seats in a state where voters are split roughly 54% Republican, 46% Democratic."

In Nevada, where Democrats are in control, they opted for a 3-1 advantage. According to the Nevada Independent (link):

[Sabata Crystal Ball analyst J. Miles] Coleman noted that under the revised lines, the three congressional districts would have gone for Biden in the high single-digit range — not blowout margins, but “something of a cushion” for Democratic incumbents. 

While Democrats could have theoretically attempted to draw a 4-0 Democratic map, Biden’s relatively narrow margin in the state (a 2.4 percent victory over Trump) meant that all congressional districts would be highly competitive and have massive ‘dummymander’ potential, with the potential to backfire and allow Republicans to win all of the state’s House delegation. 

Finally, Iowa adopted its four-seat map in late October. According to The Hill (link):

Just one of Iowa’s four congressional districts [GOP-held in the northwest portion of the state] would likely be beyond competition, according to state political observers and data released by the legislature’s nonpartisan redistricting panel. The other three districts all voted for former President Trump in 2020, but by the slimmest of margins.

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