Saturday, November 20, 2021

AP (11/20/21) on Ohio, Nevada Independent (11/19/21) on Nevada, and The Hill (10/29/21) on Iowa (OHIO, NEVADA, & IOWA)

Three more states have enacted Congressional maps in recent weeks: Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa.

Ohio is the most recent, as reported here by the Associated Press (hat tip Political Wire). The article notes that the Republican legislative majority sliced up Ohio's big cities like pizzas: 

Populous Cuyahoga and Hamilton counties — home to Cleveland and Cincinnati, respectively, and their concentrations of Democratic voters — are divided three ways each. Franklin County, home to Columbus, is divided two ways, and the western Cleveland suburbs in Lorain County are part of a district that stretches to the Indiana border, a nearly 3-hour drive.

Dave Wasserman tweets that the Ohio map "could balloon Republicans' advantage from 12R-4D to 13R-2D in 2022." The AP writer offers a slightly different assessment, claiming that "The new law creates at most three safe Democratic districts out of 15 new U.S. House seats in a state where voters are split roughly 54% Republican, 46% Democratic."

In Nevada, where Democrats are in control, they opted for a 3-1 advantage. According to the Nevada Independent (link):

[Sabata Crystal Ball analyst J. Miles] Coleman noted that under the revised lines, the three congressional districts would have gone for Biden in the high single-digit range — not blowout margins, but “something of a cushion” for Democratic incumbents. 

While Democrats could have theoretically attempted to draw a 4-0 Democratic map, Biden’s relatively narrow margin in the state (a 2.4 percent victory over Trump) meant that all congressional districts would be highly competitive and have massive ‘dummymander’ potential, with the potential to backfire and allow Republicans to win all of the state’s House delegation. 

Finally, Iowa adopted its four-seat map in late October. According to The Hill (link):

Just one of Iowa’s four congressional districts [GOP-held in the northwest portion of the state] would likely be beyond competition, according to state political observers and data released by the legislature’s nonpartisan redistricting panel. The other three districts all voted for former President Trump in 2020, but by the slimmest of margins.

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Associated Press (11/10/21) on National Picture (NATIONAL)


The Associated Press (hat tip Political Wire) has a national overview article on redistricting. Within the article is a map showing the states in which new district lines have been enacted into law or proposed. In addition, the article quotes political scientist Chris Warshaw, who opines that, “In the absence of reforms, the gerrymandering in general has gotten even worse than 2010..."

Friday, November 5, 2021

Daily Kos (11/5/21) on North Carolina (with a Little on Alabama and New Hampshire) (NC, AL, & NH)

Daily Kos provides a detailed overview of the newly enacted North Carolina U.S. House map. The current lineup is 8-5 Republican. North Carolina will be gaining a seat, so the new breakdown is projected to be 10-3 GOP with one swing district. The state has had a recent history of successful challenges to Congressional districts in state court, so we'll see what happens... Alabama's map has also been signed into law, preserving a 6-1 Republican edge. The one Democratic seat has a large Black population and the state's population is such that a second district could have been drawn to include a sizable proportion of African Americans. This was not done, however, so lawsuits will follow... Finally, New Hampshire is only at the draft stage, but Republicans in the Granite State are proposing a map to make a 1-1 split more likely, as opposed to the current 2-0 Democratic delegation.

Redistricting Now Complete in All States (NATIONAL)

  With New Hampshire finally determining how to draw the lines between its two congressional districts, all states have now completed redis...