Wasserman on Twitter (12/22/21): Redistricting "Close to a Wash" (NATIONAL)

Redistricting expert Dave Wasserman released the following tweet a few days ago. It is much better news for Democrats than would have been expected at the beginning of the redistricting cycle. Wasserman still considers the Republicans heavy favorites to take the US House majority, but this prediction is based on President Biden's current low job approval, not on redistricting...

Politico on California (12/21/21), Arizona (12/22/21), and New Jersey (12/22/21)

Three recent articles from Politico detail the new maps in three states. You can click on the names of the states to access the full articles. Below are some key quotes from these articles, with my occasional comments (in purple) to add context.

CALIFORNIA:  "This is the high end of what was a probable outcome for Democrats," said Paul Mitchell, a political data analyst and owner of the firm Redistricting Partners. "This was definitely a good outcome for Democrats. Republicans have 11 current members — in these maps they should only be sending nine back to Congress in 2022." 

California will be losing a seat due to population, so will now have 52 representatives.

ARIZONA: "Arizona, one of the most bitterly divided swing states, finalized a new congressional map that could hand the GOP six of its nine congressional districts in 2022." 

 "The state’s redistricting commission on Wednesday approved a layout that creates two true swing seats in the suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson — currently held by GOP Rep. David Schweikert and retiring Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick — while very possibly dooming Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran in the northeast half of the state." ... 

 “The map achieves what Democrats say they want nationally. It maximizes the number of competitive seats in Arizona,” said Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust. “There's three good Republican seats. There's two or three good Democrat seats. And then there's three to five competitive seats, depending on the cycle.” 

NEW JERSEY: "Barring a massive wave election for either side, Democrats’ 10-2 majority in the New Jersey delegation is likely to shrink to 9-3 under the new map. That’s because the state’s 7th District, represented by Rep. Tom Malinowski, will shed Democratic areas to the benefit of three other previously-vulnerable Democratic incumbents."

Immediately after the 2018 elections, the Democrats held an 11-1 advantage, which I termed "Blue Jersey." However, one year into the next Congress, in January 2020, District-2 representative Jeff Van Drew switched to the GOP. He then survived his first re-election as a Republican, 51.9-46.2, in November 2020.

Five-Thirty-Eight (12/2/21) on How Redistricting Looks So Far (NATIONAL)

Five-Thirty-Eight evaluates the partisan implications of the redistricting that has taken place so far (in 18 states). Three key points stand out to me.

First, on the surface, it appears that any partisan shift in the number of districts leaning Republican or Democrat is pretty mild.

Second, beneath the surface, this is good for the GOP in two ways. The baseline off of which the new districts are being drawn (after 2010) was already favorable to the Republicans and the GOP has taken a number of seats that they won by relatively slim margins in 2018 and 2020 and cushioned them with more Republican-leaning voters.

Third, in the few states where Democrats control the governorship and legislature, they have created a greater number of Democratic-leaning districts, albeit with somewhat tenuous margins (e.g., D+5). Observers such as Dave Wasserman have pointed out that such seats are vulnerable to GOP takeovers in a strongly Republican year (which 2022 is looking like). Five-Thirty-Eight author Nathaniel Rakich makes a point, however, that had already occurred to me:

...Democrats might be OK with that tradeoff, as any election that results in the loss of slightly Democratic-leaning seats is probably an election in which Republicans have already won the House handily. Instead, the goal of these new maps in Illinois, Nevada and Oregon seems to be to maximize the number of Democratic wins in neutral political environments, when the House is genuinely competitive.