Five-Thirty-Eight evaluates the partisan implications of the redistricting that has taken place so far (in 18 states). Three key points stand out to me.
First, on the surface, it appears that any partisan shift in the number of districts leaning Republican or Democrat is pretty mild.
Second, beneath the surface, this is good for the GOP in two ways. The baseline off of which the new districts are being drawn (after 2010) was already favorable to the Republicans and the GOP has taken a number of seats that they won by relatively slim margins in 2018 and 2020 and cushioned them with more Republican-leaning voters.
Third, in the few states where Democrats control the governorship and legislature, they have created a greater number of Democratic-leaning districts, albeit with somewhat tenuous margins (e.g., D+5). Observers such as Dave Wasserman have pointed out that such seats are vulnerable to GOP takeovers in a strongly Republican year (which 2022 is looking like). Five-Thirty-Eight author Nathaniel Rakich makes a point, however, that had already occurred to me:
...Democrats might be OK with that tradeoff, as any election that results in the loss of slightly Democratic-leaning seats is probably an election in which Republicans have already won the House handily. Instead, the goal of these new maps in Illinois, Nevada and Oregon seems to be to maximize the number of Democratic wins in neutral political environments, when the House is genuinely competitive.
No comments:
Post a Comment